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Two days remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often complicate day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|